FIBA WORLD CUP – Round of 16
USA v MEXICO
Road for the GOLD Medal : After sweeping the group
stage, Team USA is set to face the fourth-place finisher in Group D—Mexico,
even though the Mexicans lost three of their five games and finished with a
negative point differential. The Americans' round-of-16 matchup could end
up being easier than some of their group stage affairs, and the quarterfinals
might not be much tougher. Should Team USA cruise against Mexico, it would
face either Dominican Republic or Slovenia next in the quarters. The U.S. has
beaten both of those teams by at least 30 points each over the last
week—Dominican Republic in the group stage and Slovenia in
preliminaries. The only time the Americans might get caught sleeping would
be in the semifinals, where they could face Turkey or Lithuania. But considering
Team USA already had a recent scare against Turkey and it will be playing for
its tournament survival, overlooking an opponent isn't likely.
On Team USA's side of things, there are a few things to
note. Kyrie Irving went
down with injury late in the fourth quarter against Ukraine. Irving needed
assistance to the locker room, but Coach K insisted after the game that he
didn't think it would be a serious injury.
In terms of Team USA's leaders, you can probably solidly
point to four players on the roster.James Harden is the
most effective shot creator and fast break player, drawing contact like a
magnet and generating points out of hopeless situations. Stephen Curry is the
wise shooter who uses his respect to create for others. Anthony Davis has the
size to fly over any of his opponents, and Kenneth Faried has the energy to
constantly be at the rim. All four of these players have been essential to Team
USA's success so far, but I believe Harden's abilities in transition are what
will help them out the most in this matchup.
Probable line-ups
USA: Irving ?(9.8Pts, 3.8AS) – Curry(9.4Pts, 3.8AS) –
Harden(12.6Pts,4.4AS) – Faried(13.8Pts, 7.8Reb) – Davis(15.8Pts, 6.4Reb)
Mexico: Gutierrez – Cruz – Hernandez – Ramos – Ayon
I think the outcome of this game is clear for everybody, I
expect from USA to score around 98-105 points and Mexico to score 65-75 points.
We can try some bets on player specials :
- Harden – Points, rebounds & assists : over 21.5 – 1.85 | ✖
- over 167.5 points – 1.41 | ✖
- total points(regular time) : 171–180 – 3.40 (Bwin) | ✖
FRANCE v CROATIA
The second match of Round 16 is the DERBY of the day : the
European champions France will play against Croatia. France(3-2) finished third
in group A under two better teams Spain & Brazil and over Serbia, Iran and
Egypt. Croatia(3-2) finished second in group B, the most balanced one from my
point of view, under Greece and over Argentina, Senegal, Puerto Rico,
Philippines.
Two days ago, in the last game of the group phase France
survived Iran scare(81–76 ) on account of Evan Fournier, who averaged 12
minutes per game in the first four games, came off the bench to stop an Iranian
team that led by as many as 10 points in the first quarter and cut the deficit
to just five points with under two minutes left to play. The 21-year-old
improved France's offensive game with his lethal shootings from behind the arc
- he hit 3 for 5 attempts from three-point territory - on his way to 13 points.
Croatia easily dealt with Puerto Rico(103–82).
Probable line-ups
France: Heurtel (4.2AS) – Batum(9.2Pts) – Gelabale(5.8Pts)
– Diaw(7.4Pts, 3.8Reb,3.8AS) – Lauvergne(10.8Pts, 5.0Reb)
Croatia: Lafayette(6.6Pts,3.2AS) – Simon(10.2Pts) –
Bogdanovic(20.0 Pts) – Saric(13.2Pts, 6.6Reb) – Tomic(8.6Pts, 7.4Reb)
It’s very hard to predict the winner of this game, maybe we
can witness to overtime(13.00)... We will see a hard battle under the
basket with players like Lauvergne, Diaw, Gobert / Tomic, Saric, Markota,
but both teams has great guards, forwards who can easily score from outside
like Batum, Gelabale, Fournier / Bogdanovic, Simon, Ukic. Batum, the leader of
the French national team scored under his line in every game till now, I think
here is the time for him to make a big game… Heurtel is a great, dynamic point
guard, who usually doesn’t score a lot of points, but he is always looking for
an assist… Lauvergne is a beast under the basket, he is in great form… Diaw,
NBA champion last season with Spurs, is a very experienced power forward, who
doesn’t shine till now at this WC, but he can explode anytime… Bogdanovic is a
great player, a fantastic scorer with shot-creating skills and creativity
around the hoop, but his line is very high for a game like this… Tomic is
one of my favourite centers from Europe, he will have a tough matchup against
Lauvergne, but he can make a good game… Krunoslav Simon, who made a great
season at Lokomotiv Kuban, doesn’t shine till now, but he can score spectacular
baskets anytime… Saric is a very talented young power forward, this guy
will be a huge star in the next few years ! We can try few bets on players
:
- Heurtel over 3.5 assists – 1.85 | ✓
- Batum over 12.5 points – 1.85 | ✓
- Tomic – Points, rebounds & assists : over 19.5 – 1.85 | ✓
- Krunoslav Simon over 10.5 points – 1.85 | ✖
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC v SLOVENIA
In the third match of Round 16 Dominican Republic will play
against Slovenia. Dominican Republic (2-3) finished third in the most
unpredictable group(C) under the huge favourite USA and Turkey and over teams
like New Zeeland, Ukraine, Finland. Slovenia(4-1) finished second in group D
under Lithuania and over Australia, Mexico, Angola, South Korea.
Two days ago, in the last game of the group phase Dominican
Republic lost the battle for the second place against Turkey(77–64). Slovenia
lost dramatic in a thriller game for the first place in group against
Lithuania. They led after third quarter with 7 points, but in the last
quarter they scored only 2 points and they lost the game by 3pts (67-64).
Probable line-ups
Dominican Republic: Sosa (5.8Pts, 2.6AS) – Feldeine(8Pts,
3.6Reb, 3.0AS) – Garcia(20.2Pts) – Baez(5.6Pts, 6.2Reb) – Vargas(6.4Pts,
7.0Reb)
Slovenia: Goran Dragic(17.4Pts, 4.0AS) – Lorbek(12.2Pts,
2.6AS) – Zoran Dragic(12.2 Pts, 4.0Reb) – Omic(9.6Pts, 6.6Reb) – Slokar(4.0Pts)
I think Slovenia will get back on track after the dramatic
lose against Lithuania and will control the tempo of the game and I hope they
will win. I like their way of playing, the Dragic brothers assisted by Lorbek
are running all the court and score a lot of points. Dominicans are an
ambitious team lead by Houston Rockets’ experienced player, Francisco Garcia
and Feldeine, an interesting shooting guard, who plays in Italy, at Cantu.
Probably the Americans will lead the statistics on rebounds, that’s why I think
Vargas and Martinez can grab a few balls under the basket. Slovenia can be
unstoppable if the brothers are on fire, especially Goran, they will fly high
on this game.
- Goran Dragic – Points, rebounds & assists over 24.5 assists – 1.85 | ✖
- Zoran Dragic over 12.5 points – 1.85 | ✓
- Feldeine over 8.5 points – 1.85 | ✓
- Vargas over 6.5 rebounds – 1.85 | ✓
- Martinez over 5.5 rebounds – 1.85 | ✓
Competitive Analysis
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