Basketball, 9 September, 2014

FIBA WORLD CUP – Quarter-Finals

LITHUANIA v TURKEY     

In the opening game of Quarter-Finals, Lithuania will play against Turkey. As I wrote in the previous preview two days ago, Lithuania finished first in group D, in which they started as favourites… after that they held on to beat New Zealand 76-71 in the Round of 16 at Barcelona's Palau Sant Jordi on Sunday and reach the Quarter-Finals of FIBA's flagship event for the third consecutive time. New Zealand's Tall Blacks are known for never giving up and this much was evident from the showing put on by Nenad Vucinic's team. Down by double-digits early on, they clawed their way back to fight an even battle but Lithuania did enough to edge them out. Turkey finished second in group C after USA, but their form was very unpredictable and they had tough games, for example : W against New Zeeland(76-73), L against weaker Ukraine (58-64), overtime W against Finland(77-73). In Round of 16, they had a tough match again, against Australia, but they managed to turn around that game incredibly…the last minute belonged to Preldzic : the Fenerbache forward buried a three-pointer with 48 seconds to go that made it 64-62. At the other end Australia committed a shotclock violation. Preldzic - who else - then sized up the defense and hit a contested three-pointer from the left wing for a 65-64 edge with five seconds remaining. Australia went to Joe Ingles for the final possession but he lost control of the ball and time ran out. Preldzic had all 16 points of his points in the second half. Guller also finished with 16.

Probable line-ups

Lithuania: Juskevicius(7.5Pts) – Seibutis(8.8Pts, 3.2AS) – Maciulis(6.7Pts) – Motiejunas(10.0Pts, 4.5Reb) – Valanciunas(13.0Pts, 7.8Reb)

Turkey : Arslan (8.3Pts, 3.0AS) – Güler(6.8Pts) – Preldzic (12.5Pts, 5.3Reb,3.8AS) – Gönlüm (5.3Pts, 4.0Reb) – Asik(9.7Pts, 8.2Reb) 

As I said earlier, Lithuania has a great team with interesting players all around the court… their big weakness from my point of view is the point guard position, where they lost their star, Kalnietis, few days before the tournament kick-off. Seibutis, a player with huge experience is trying to replace his role… Maciulis is a team-player, who can score from outside and has an important role in defence, but he doesn’t shine at this World Cup yet… Motiejunas & Valanciunas, two NBA players are leading the team under the basket with points and rebounds… They have great players on the bench, who can turn around any game, like Pocius(6.5Pts), Lavrinovic brothers(8.5/3.8Pts) and Jankunas(5.7Pts).. Turkey is a team without huge stars, but with fighter, skilled, experienced players, most of them playing for the big teams in Turkey (Fenerbahce, Galatasaray, Anadolu Efes), exception made the great Center of the team, Asik, who is playing in NBA for Houston Rockets. My favourite player of this squad is the 27 years old small forward – Preldzic – the jolly joker of the team. Asik and Gonlum are the big guys under the basket, they have to grab the rebounds… Guler, Arslan, Savas, Akyol, Aldemir, Tunceri are great players, either can contribute with crucial points, rebounds or assists.. Lithuania is the favourite of this game by bookmakers, but for sure, they will not win this game easy, I find value on Turkish handicap betting and I think we can try a few bets on players :

• Motiejunas over 9.5 points – 1.85
  | ✖
• Motiejunas - Points, rebounds & assists : over 14.5 – 1.85   | ✖
• Maciulis over 7.5 points – 1.85   | ✓
• Pocius over 6.5 points – 1.85  
  | ✓
• Preldzic over 3.5 assists – 1.85  | ✓
• Asik over 9.5 points – 1.85   | ✓
• Turkey +10.5 – 1.40  | ✖
• Total points (regular time) : 131-140 – 3.60   | ✓

SLOVENIA v USA

In the second game of the day, Slovenia will play against USA. Slovenia finished second in group D after a dramatic lose in the group winning game against Lithuania. After that, the Dragic brothers, Goran and Zoran, on Saturday struck the right chords to help Slovenia overcome a pesky Dominican Republic 71-61 and reach the Quarter-Finals of the FIBA Basketball World Cup. The win saw Slovenia return to their second successful Quarter-Final appearance at FIBA's flagship event and also set up their third meeting against the reigning champions USA in the history of the tournament. The Dominican Republic, who came through the tough Group C in Bilbao, controlled the tempo of the game and held the edge on the scoreboard for a better part of the first half. That was until the Dragic pair took charge of the proceedings.The brothers, along with Miha Zupan and Uros Slokar, began to weave some swift plays on the offensive end as Slovenia unleashed a 19-0 run across the half-time break. Zoran Dragic - who sparked the surge with a three-pointer and had seven points in the spurt - went on to finish with 18 points. Goran had a dozen, including four in the decisive run, and handed out six assists. On the other hand, reigning world champions USA posted their sixth successive win in eight days at the 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup beating 2013 FIBA Americas champions Mexico 86-63 at the Palau Sant Jordi in front of a capacity-crowd on Saturday. Stephen Curry and James Harden, two of the more experienced players in FIBA competitions in the current USA roster, spread open the floor early on as the USA built a dozen-point lead midway through the first quarter. Barring the occasional travelling violations, there was nothing to trouble the USA after that.

Probable line-ups

Slovenia: Goran Dragic(16.5Pts, 4.3AS) – Lorbek(11.5Pts) – Zoran Dragic (13.2Pts, 3.8 Reb) – Omic (8.3Pts, 5.8Reb) – Slokar(4.8Pts)

USA : Irving (8.8Pts, 3.5AS) – Curry(11.2Pts, 3.8AS) – Harden(12.5Pts, 4.0AS) – Faried (12.8Pts, 7.8Reb) – Davis(13.8Pts, 6.3Reb) 

This is the most unbalanced quarter-final game, unfortunately there is not to much to write about this game…USA is a very good team, even they didn’t bring all their stars to this WC.. first of all, they will dominate their opponents physically, under the basket it is far better team that Slovenia, a team which is dependent upon Dragic brothers. USA will win this game, probably without any emotion… Slovenia is an interesting, ambitious, fast, skilled team, I like them and I hope they will get out there and play their spectacular basketball and won’t lose too bad. It is not a good match to bet on, but you can try one of these: 

• Faried over 10.5 points – 1.85   | ✓ 
• Faried over 7.5 rebounds – 1.85     | ✓ 
• Klay Thompson over 10.5 points – 1.85     | ✓ 
• Davis over 6.5 rebounds – 1.85   | ✓ 
• Irving over 3.5 assists – 1.85  
  | ✖
• Goran Dragic over 4.5 assists – 2.00 
  | ✖
• Goran Dragic over 15.5 points – 1.85  
  | ✖
• Lorbek over 9.5 points – 1.85   | ✓