Basketball, 7 September, 2014

FIBA WORLD CUP – Round of 16

NEW ZEELAND v LITHUANIA    

In the first match of Round 16, New Zeeland will play against Lithuania. New Zeeland (2-3) finished fourth in group C below USA, Turkey, Dominican Republic and above Ukraine & Finland. Lithuania(4-1) finished first in a group where they started as favourites, but their dominance wasn’t the expected one… they surprinsigly lost against an ambitious and interesting Australian national team and they secured the top place of the group in the last game against Lithuania after a sensational fourth quarter. Three days ago, in the last game of the group phase New Zeeland won against Finland in the decisive game for the last qualifying spot.

Probable line-ups

New Zeeland : Penney(11.8Pts, 5.0Reb) – T.Webster(5.2Pts) – Vukona(6.8Pts, 6.8Reb) – Abercrombie(7.6Pts, 3.4Reb) – Loe(4.2Pts, 3.0Reb) 

Lithuania: Juskevicius(8.6Pts) – Seibutis(8.8Pts, 2.8AS) – Maciulis(7.0 Pts) – Motiejunas(10.4Pts, 3.8Reb) – Valanciunas(11.2Pts, 6.8Reb)

Sincerely, I didn’t know very much about the national team of New Zeeland and I didn’t follow live their games at this World Cup. Lithuania has a great team with interesting players all around the court… their big weakness from my point of view is the point guard position, where they lost their star, Kalnietis, few days before the tournament kick-off. Seibutis, a player with huge experience is trying to replace his role… Maciulis is a team-player, who can score from outside and has an important role in defence… Motiejunas & Valanciunas, two NBA players are leading the team under the basket with points and rebounds… They have great players on the bench, who can turn around any game, like Pocius(5.6Pts) and forwards Lavrinovic brothers(8.2/4.3Pts) and Jankunas(6.4Pts).. I think and I hope my Lithuanians’ will win this game probably by 6-10 points difference...We can try few bets on players :

• Motiejunas over 10.5 points – 2.00   | ✖
• Valanciunas over 12.5 points – 1.85  | ✓
• Seibutis over 2.5 assists – 1.85  | ✓

SERBIA v GREECE    

In the second match of Round 16, disappointing Serbia will play against the unbeaten Greece. Serbia (2-3) finished fourth in a tough group below Spain, Brazil and France recording two wins against weaker teams like Iran and Egypt. On the other hand, Greece(5-0) is unbeaten till now, finished on top of group B above dangerous teams like Argentina, Croatia, Senegal, Puerto Rico, Philippinesis.

Three days ago, in the last game of the group phase, Serbia lost against Gold medal contenders–Spain(73-89), but they played really good. Greece won (79-71) the decisive match for the top spot of the group in a game played until the last seconds against Argentina.

Probable line-ups

Serbia : Teodosic (10.4Pts, 4.2AS) – Markovic (4.2Pts, 3.2AS) – Bjelica(12.6Pts,6.8Reb) – Krstic(4.7Pts) – Raduljica(14.2Pts, 4.8Reb) 

Greece: Zisis(8.6Pts, 4.6AS) – Calathes(10.8Pts, 2.4AS) – Papanikolaou(7.6 Pts, 3.4Reb) – Printezis(11.6Pts, 3.6Reb) – Bourousis(12.0Pts,10.0Reb)

Greece is the favourite of this game, maybe they are better in every position, but the Serbians are a fighter nation, they will run and fight for every ball until last seconds, they have in their roster top players like Teodosic, Bogdanovic, Bjelica, they have to make a big game tonight ! Greece left at home top players with huge experience at this level (Diamantidis, Spanoulis, Schortsianidis), but they’re playing really good, are dominating every team under the basket with Bourousis, Printezis and Kaimakoglou and they have very good bench players(Kaimakoglou, Antetokounmpo, Vasileiadis, Sloukas) who can contribute with crucial points anytime. Serbia has a very good trio as I wrote above, but they have in Raduljica a very good Center player, who is scoring a lot of points and drawn fouls. I expect a hard battle for the qualification spot, the greek teams has a very aggressive and massive defence, it will be difficult for the serbians to score easy points. I think we will see a great tactical match and these players will be on top :

• Bogdanovic over 9.5 points – 1.85    | ✓ 
• Zisis over 3.5 assists – 1.85  | ✖
• Teodosic over 4.5 assists – 2.20   | ✓

TURKEY v AUSTRALIA

It’s a hard game to bet on players… everybody expect Australia to win this game, but I think we will see a great, equaled game, which can go either way, so I think we can assist to a surprise here, so I find value on Turkey win tonight – 2.40   | ✓ 

BRAZIL v ARGENTINA    

In the last match of the day, Brazil will play against Argentina. Everybody expected to see this game in the final of the Football World Cup two months ago, but the hosts disappointed their fans. Brazil has a great team at this BASKETBALL World Cup, finished second in group A with only one lose against the favourite, Spain. On the other hand, Argetina(2-3) finished third, because they lost against Greece and Croatia.

Three days ago, in the last game of the group phase, Brazil demolished Egypt(128-65), while Argentina lost against Greece (71-79) in a very tight game.  

Probable line-ups

Brazil : Huertas(8.8Pts, 3.6AS) – Barbosa (13.6Pts) – Garcia (8.2Pts) – Splitter (8.0Pts, 5.8Reb) – Nene(6.8Pts, 4.2Reb) 

Argentina: Prigioni(9.0Pts, 4.4AS) – Campazzo(8.8Pts, 5.0AS) – Nocioni (9.8 Pts, 5.2Reb) – Herrmann(9.8Pts, 5.4Reb) – Scola(21.6Pts,8.8Reb)

Brazil, with a very good point guard, who is playing very well for Barcelona and for his national team, too, Huertas, will have a very interesting match-up against the experienced Prigioni. Barbosa, Phoenix Suns’ shooting guard, is the leader of the team, a player, who is assuming a lot of shots. They have a big three under the basket, all of them NBA players, including the last year champion Thiago Splitter, the Wizards’ old guy Nene and the Cleveland’s Center player, Varejao(8.2Pts, 7.6Reb). Argentina came to this World Cup without their best player, the last year NBA champion, Manu Ginobili. Therefore, the best player of the squad is Indiana’s power forward, Luis Scola, who is really on fire, being one of the best scorers of the tournament. If Argentina wants to get something from this game, the starters assisted by the important bench players(Laprovittola, Gutierrez, Safar, Mata) have to play a big game tonight.  

I expect a tough Latin American battle… the key of the game for each team will be to annihilate the opposite team’s big guys. We can try few bets on players :

• Prigioni over 4.5 assists – 1.85  | ✖
• Nocioni over 10.5 points – 1.85  | ✖
• Barbosa over 12.5 points – 1.85  | ✖
• Splitter over 5.5 rebounds – 1.85  | ✓ 

Basketball, 6 September, 2014

FIBA WORLD CUP – Round of 16

USA v MEXICO    

Road for the GOLD Medal : After sweeping the group stage, Team USA is set to face the fourth-place finisher in Group D—Mexico, even though the Mexicans lost three of their five games and finished with a negative point differential. The Americans' round-of-16 matchup could end up being easier than some of their group stage affairs, and the quarterfinals might not be much tougher. Should Team USA cruise against Mexico, it would face either Dominican Republic or Slovenia next in the quarters. The U.S. has beaten both of those teams by at least 30 points each over the last week—Dominican Republic in the group stage and Slovenia in preliminaries. The only time the Americans might get caught sleeping would be in the semifinals, where they could face Turkey or Lithuania. But considering Team USA already had a recent scare against Turkey and it will be playing for its tournament survival, overlooking an opponent isn't likely.

On Team USA's side of things, there are a few things to note. Kyrie Irving went down with injury late in the fourth quarter against Ukraine. Irving needed assistance to the locker room, but Coach K insisted after the game that he didn't think it would be a serious injury.

In terms of Team USA's leaders, you can probably solidly point to four players on the roster.James Harden is the most effective shot creator and fast break player, drawing contact like a magnet and generating points out of hopeless situations. Stephen Curry is the wise shooter who uses his respect to create for others. Anthony Davis has the size to fly over any of his opponents, and Kenneth Faried has the energy to constantly be at the rim. All four of these players have been essential to Team USA's success so far, but I believe Harden's abilities in transition are what will help them out the most in this matchup.

Probable line-ups

USA: Irving ?(9.8Pts, 3.8AS) – Curry(9.4Pts, 3.8AS) – Harden(12.6Pts,4.4AS) – Faried(13.8Pts, 7.8Reb) – Davis(15.8Pts, 6.4Reb) 

Mexico: Gutierrez – Cruz – Hernandez – Ramos – Ayon

I think the outcome of this game is clear for everybody, I expect from USA to score around 98-105 points and Mexico to score 65-75 points. We can try some bets on player specials :

• Harden – Points, rebounds & assists : over 21.5 – 1.85  | ✖
• over 167.5 points – 1.41  | ✖
• total points(regular time) : 171–180  – 3.40 (Bwin)  | ✖

FRANCE v CROATIA    

The second match of Round 16 is the DERBY of the day : the European champions France will play against Croatia. France(3-2) finished third in group A under two better teams Spain & Brazil and over Serbia, Iran and Egypt. Croatia(3-2) finished second in group B, the most balanced one from my point of view, under Greece and over Argentina, Senegal, Puerto Rico, Philippines.

Two days ago, in the last game of the group phase France survived Iran scare(81–76 ) on account of Evan Fournier, who averaged 12 minutes per game in the first four games, came off the bench to stop an Iranian team that led by as many as 10 points in the first quarter and cut the deficit to just five points with under two minutes left to play. The 21-year-old improved France's offensive game with his lethal shootings from behind the arc - he hit 3 for 5 attempts from three-point territory - on his way to 13 points. Croatia easily dealt with Puerto Rico(103–82).

Probable line-ups

France: Heurtel (4.2AS) – Batum(9.2Pts) – Gelabale(5.8Pts) – Diaw(7.4Pts, 3.8Reb,3.8AS) – Lauvergne(10.8Pts, 5.0Reb) 

Croatia: Lafayette(6.6Pts,3.2AS) – Simon(10.2Pts) – Bogdanovic(20.0 Pts) – Saric(13.2Pts, 6.6Reb) – Tomic(8.6Pts, 7.4Reb)

It’s very hard to predict the winner of this game, maybe we can witness to overtime(13.00)... We will see a hard battle under the basket with players like Lauvergne, Diaw, Gobert / Tomic, Saric, Markota, but both teams has great guards, forwards who can easily score from outside like Batum, Gelabale, Fournier / Bogdanovic, Simon, Ukic. Batum, the leader of the French national team scored under his line in every game till now, I think here is the time for him to make a big game… Heurtel is a great, dynamic point guard, who usually doesn’t score a lot of points, but he is always looking for an assist… Lauvergne is a beast under the basket, he is in great form… Diaw, NBA champion last season with Spurs, is a very experienced power forward, who doesn’t shine till now at this WC, but he can explode anytime… Bogdanovic is a great player, a fantastic scorer with shot-creating skills and creativity around the hoop, but his line is very high for a game like this… Tomic is one of my favourite centers from Europe, he will have a tough matchup against Lauvergne, but he can make a good game… Krunoslav Simon, who made a great season at Lokomotiv Kuban, doesn’t shine till now, but he can score spectacular baskets anytime…  Saric is a very talented young power forward, this guy will be a huge star in the next few years ! We can try few bets on players :

• Heurtel over 3.5 assists – 1.85   | ✓
• Batum over 12.5 points – 1.85  | ✓
• Tomic – Points, rebounds & assists : over 19.5 – 1.85  | ✓
• Krunoslav Simon over 10.5 points – 1.85  | ✖

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC v SLOVENIA    

In the third match of Round 16 Dominican Republic will play against Slovenia. Dominican Republic (2-3) finished third in the most unpredictable group(C) under the huge favourite USA and Turkey and over teams like New Zeeland, Ukraine, Finland. Slovenia(4-1) finished second in group D under Lithuania and over Australia, Mexico, Angola, South Korea.

Two days ago, in the last game of the group phase Dominican Republic lost the battle for the second place against Turkey(77–64). Slovenia lost dramatic in a thriller game for the first place in group against Lithuania. They led after third quarter  with 7 points, but in the last quarter they scored only 2 points and they lost the game by 3pts (67-64).

Probable line-ups

Dominican Republic: Sosa (5.8Pts, 2.6AS) – Feldeine(8Pts, 3.6Reb, 3.0AS) – Garcia(20.2Pts) – Baez(5.6Pts, 6.2Reb) – Vargas(6.4Pts, 7.0Reb) 

Slovenia: Goran Dragic(17.4Pts, 4.0AS) – Lorbek(12.2Pts, 2.6AS) – Zoran Dragic(12.2 Pts, 4.0Reb) – Omic(9.6Pts, 6.6Reb) – Slokar(4.0Pts)

I think Slovenia will get back on track after the dramatic lose against Lithuania and will control the tempo of the game and I hope they will win. I like their way of playing, the Dragic brothers assisted by Lorbek are running all the court and score a lot of points. Dominicans are an ambitious team lead by Houston Rockets’ experienced player, Francisco Garcia and Feldeine, an interesting shooting guard, who plays in Italy, at Cantu. Probably the Americans will lead the statistics on rebounds, that’s why I think Vargas and Martinez can grab a few balls under the basket. Slovenia can be unstoppable if the brothers are on fire, especially Goran, they will fly high on this game.

• Goran Dragic – Points, rebounds & assists over 24.5 assists – 1.85  | ✖
• Zoran Dragic over 12.5 points – 1.85  | ✓
• Feldeine over 8.5 points – 1.85  | ✓
• Vargas over 6.5 rebounds – 1.85  | ✓
• Martinez over 5.5 rebounds – 1.85  | ✓

Thursday, September 4, 2014

Today it’s not a very good day for betting, so be careful with your stakes !

FOOTBALL

WORLD – FRIENDLY INTERNATIONAL  

I don’t recommend to bet on friendlies, because we haven’t got sure informations about the starting line-ups, the motivation of the players is questionable, but today the betting offer on football is not plentiful, so I choosed a few value bets from my point of view :

SLOVAKIA v MALTA      

•   Correct score 1–0, 2–0 or 3–0  – 2.35 (Bwin)    | ✓ 

CROATIA v CYPRUS     

•   Correct score 1–0, 2–0 or 3–0  – 2.30 (Bwin)     | ✓

BELGIUM v AUSTRALIA     

•   Correct score 1–0, 2–0 or 3–0  – 2.75 (Bwin)     | ✓ 

TENNIS - US OPEN – QUARTER FINALS (MEN)

TOMAS BERDYCH v MARIN CILIC      

• over 3.5 sets – 1.44   | ✖

BASKETBALL – FIBA WORLD CUP

Today we have the last matches of the group phase, I choosed to pick the best player of Mexico, because they are in a must-win situation against Korea and I wrote a few rows about the greatest matches of the day…

SOUTH KOREA v MEXICO            

• Gustavo Ayon over 8.5 rebounds – 1.85   
• Gustavo Ayon over 16.5 points – 1.85   | Player did not play in this game, void bets...

LITHUANIA v SLOVENIA    

In the last match of the group D we have the DERBY of the day: the best team of this group Slovenia will play against Lithuania. Both teams secured their place in the elimination phase. Slovenia has been perfect 4-0 so far, winning all the matches by at least 10 points or more. On the other hand, Lithuania (3-1), surprinsingly lost against Australia, will probably advance from the 2nd spot unless they pull off a victory against Lithuania, which won’t be a big surprise for me, but in this case Lithuania will secure the first place in the group and Slovenia will finish second and Yesterday, Lithuania easily dealt with Korea (79-49), respectively Slovenia overcame Angola (93-87). Lithuania with  Valanciunas(11.0Pts, 8.0Reb), Motiejunas(11.8Pts,5.2Reb),  Seibutis(9.5Pts, 3.2AS), Maciulis(7.8Pts) will face Goran Dragic(18.8Pts,4.0AS), Zoran Dragic(12.8Pts), Lorbek(11.8Pts), Omic(10.2 Pts, 6.2Reb), Balazic(10.2). Slovenia  managed to score over 88 points in every game so far, but today I’m sure they can’t do that. The main weakness of the Lithuanian national team is the point guard position from my point of view, because their star with a great vision, Kalnietis had been injured few days before WC start. Lithuania has a very aggressive defence with huge players under the basket, I think the key of the game for them today will be to annihilate the Dragic brothers, especially Goran, who is one of the best players at this World Cup... I expect a tough battle for the group winning, a game without many points and I hope Lithuania will win this game. My predictions:

• under 160.5 points – 1.44     | ✓       
• Maciulis over 8.5 points – 1.85     | ✖

ARGENTINA v GREECE  
  

In the last match of the group B, the best team of this group Greece will play against the super offensive Argentina. Both teams secured their place in the elimination phase. Greece has been perfect 4-0 so far, winning all the matches by at least 11 points or more. On the other hand, Argentina (3-1) will probably advance from the 2nd spot unless they pull off a victory against Greece, which won’t be a big surprise for me, but in this case Argentina will secure the first place in the group and will probably play against Serbia and Greece will finish second and will play against France in the next phase. Yesterday, Argentina easily dealt with Senegal (81-46), respectively Greece overcame Croatia (76-65), both games were already over at the halftime. Greece with guards like N.Zisis (7.5Pts, 4.5AS), Calathes(9Pts), Papanikolaou(8Pts, 3.2Reb, 2.5AS) and big men’s like Bourousis(11Pts,8.8Reb), Kaimakoglou(11.2Pts, 7.5Reb), Printezis(10.8Pts, 3.5Reb) will face the second scorer of the tournament Luis Scola(22.8Pts, 9.8Reb) covered by Andres Nocioni(10.2 Pts, 5.5Reb), Herrmann(10.5Pts, 5.5Reb), Prigioni(8.8Pts, 5.2AS) and Campazzo(8.5Pts, 5.0AS). Argentina managed to score over 80 points in every game so far, but today I don’t think they can do that. The greek national team has a very aggressive defence with huge players under the basket, I think the key of the game for them today will be to annihilate Scola and to control the tempo of the game... I expect a tough battle for the group winning, a game without many points and I hope the European team will win this game. My predictions:

• under 159.5 points – 1.44  | ✓ 
• Scola under  20.5 points – 1.85   | ✓ 
• Scola under  8.5 rebounds – 1.85   | ✓ 
• Printezis over 8.5 points – 1.85    | ✓
• Nocioni over 10.5 points – 1.85   | ✖

SPAIN v SERBIA 

In the last match of the group phase, the host country Spain will play against Serbia. Both teams secured their place in the elimination phase. Spain has been perfect 4-0 so far, winning all the matches by at least 19 points or more. On the other hand, Serbia (2-2) will probably advance from the 4th spot unless they pull off a stunner against Spain, which is highly hypothetical. The hosts are definitely looking as the favorite to win the first place since they are crushing the competition in the tougher schedule than their main rival, USA. Last night Spain easily dealt with France (88-64), in a game which was already over at the halftime. The Spaniards had a 10-point lead at the halftime and never looked back. Their game is beautiful to watch and the combination of their centers and perimeter players just seems unstoppable. Spain is likely to rotate a bit tomorrow and give its key players some rest before they embark on the harder part of the journey to the title. The opponent, Serbia, will also try to rest some starters since it was a busy schedule in the past couple of days and they don't have the luxury of depth like Spain. Coach Sasa Djordjevic will look to make some adjustments, especially defensively as their defense was poor in matches against France and Brazil. Serbia will advance because they have beaten the two inferior teams, Egypt and Iran. Both sides will be free of any pressure as result won't impact the standings too much.  The game could be like an exhibition game for the fans as it will close the whole group stage, so I expect a lot of points. My predictions for this game are:

• over 149.5 points – 1.90   | ✓ 
• over 145.5 points – 1.44    | ✓ 

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Wednesday, 3 September, 2014

Today it’s not a very good day for betting, so be careful with your stakes!

FOOTBALL

WORLD – FRIENDLY INTERNATIONAL  

I don’t recommend to bet on friendlies, because we haven’t got sure informations about the starting line-ups, the motivation of the players is questionable, but today the betting offer on football is not plentiful, so I choosed a few value bets from my point of view :

DENMARK v TURKEY     

•   both teams to score – 2.00   | ✓

ENGLAND v NORWAY    

•   12 – 14 corner – 3.40   | ✖

TENNIS - US OPEN – QUARTER FINALS (MEN)

NOVAK DJOKOVIC v ANDY MURRAY     

• Novak Djokovic to win 3–1 – 3.50  | ✓

BASKETBALL – FIBA WORLD CUP

Today we have 5 balanced matches, where the outcome can go either way and in the other matches we have huge favourites, where I don’t know exactly how the coaches think the rotation, because they have to rest the key players… The games are complicated, it’s hard to find value on over/under total points or player specials, but nevertheless I choosed some picks for you :  

NEW ZEELAND v UKRAINE  

• Natyazhko over 3.5 rebounds – 1.85  | ✓

SLOVENIA v ANGOLA   

• Goran Dragic over 17.5 points – 1.85  | ✖

TURKEY v FINLAND    

• Omer Asik over 8.5 rebounds – 1.85  | ✖

SERBIA v BRAZIL   

• Milos Teodosic over 9.5 points – 1.85  | ✓

GREECE v CROATIA    

• Bojan Bogdanovic over 15.5 points – 1.85   | ✓
• under 152.5 points – 1.68   | ✓

LITHUANIA v SOUTH KOREA    

• Valanciunas – Points, rebounds & assists : over 20.5 – 1.85  | ✖

SPAIN v FRANCE   

• Rudy Fernandez over 9.5 points – 1.85 | ✖ 

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