Euroleague, 20 November, 2014

BASKETBALL - EUROLEAGUE 

If it's Thursday, it's EUROLEAGUE DAY... Last week was a crazy one with a series of surprises : Anadolu Efes won against Real Madrid - 3.65, Crvena Zvezda won on road against Laboral Kutxa - 2.70, Neptunas won at home against Valencia Basket - 3.50, Maccabi Tel Aviv won on road in Spain against Unicaja - 2.90 and Novgorod managed to win the Russian battle in Kazan - 5.00... Therefore, the odds for this week's matches are more balanced, so I don't recommend to bet on moneyline, but there are some options on over/under total points:

UNICS KAZAN v ANADOLU EFES 

These teams meet again after a very different first halves to the regular season. Efes beat Unics 82-76 in Istanbul and is undefeated on the road. Unics needs a big game from its point guard duo, Curtis Jerrells and Nikos Zisis, who must control the game tempo against Dontaye Draper, Dogus Balbay and Donnie McGrath. Efes relies on youngsters Cedi Osman and Furkan Korkmaz to make the difference at the wings along with Stratos Perperoglou and Matt Janning, whose last-second tip-in lifted his team against Real Madrid last week. None of them will have it easy, as Unics is really experienced at the wings with Keith Langford, Sergey Bykov and James White. Efes is still without Nenad Krstic, so Stephane Lasme, Dario Saric and Milko Bjelica will see most of the playing time around the baskets. Saric faces a tough test against Unics power forwards Kostas Kaimakoglou and Viktor Sanikidze, while Lasme has a tough matchup against D'or Fischer. Expect high intensity and drama in Kazan.

Anadolu Efes (4-1) is coming after a huge win at home against Real Madrid, a team with one of the best roster in Europe, but the players are still not playing at 100% from my point of view, while Unics Kazan (1-4) is coming after two disappointing lost games against Novgorod and Zalgiris(in both games where booked as favourites). If we're looking on the odds of the game, logically the value is on the Turkish side, but they always play better at home, they have some injuried players (Krstic is the most important missing) and Russians are in a must-win situation. I think we will see a great defence-minded game, I expect an underish game - 146.5 (1.90).   | ✓

Keith Langford(foto-right side) is not my type of player, but he is an all-around scorer. Last year was the best player of Emporio Armani Milano and this season is clearly the leader of Unics Kazan. The Turkish defence will definitely try to put pressure on him, but this guy can beat any defence from my point of view and if he will be in a good shape, I think he can go over his total points set by the bookies - 15.5 (1.85)   | ✓

CSKA MOSCOW v ALBA BERLIN  

CSKA will qualify to the Top 16 with its next win. CSKA leads the competition in two-point shooting percentage (61.7%) and ALBA is second in two-pointers made (24 per game). CSKA already beat ALBA 68-84 in Berlin. Stopping Milos Teodosic and Aaron Jackson will be critical for ALBA, which relies on Cliff Hammonds and Alex Renfroe to do so. The matchup between Renfroe and Teodosic, two players in very good shape, will be critical. ALBA has depth at both wings, but Reggie Redding and Niels Giffey will see most of the playing time against Sonny Weems, Vitaly Fridzon and Nando De Colo. The battle in the paint will be very important, as ALBA is running its offense through an unstoppable Jamel McLean, who is tied with Teodosic for third place in average performance index ranking (20.6). Leon Radosevic, Marko Banic and Johan Wolfarth-Boetterman round out a solid frontcourt that will not have it easy against Kyle Hines, Andrey Vorontsevich, Sasha Kaun and Demetris Nichols. The matchup between Hines and McLean, two physical, talented big men, could be one of the biggest keys to this game.
Normally, it will be a game controlled and won by the better team, CSKA. The Teodosic - Weems - Kaun trio is playing very efficient and dominating, I expect a spectacular, intensive game.. if you decide to bet on this game, I see imagination in Bwin's total points offer 151 - 160 (3.40)   | ✖

OLYMPIAKOS v VALENCIA BASKET
  

All signs point to a low-scoring game. Both teams are among the bottom third in offense this season and the Reds boast the Euroleague’s stingiest defense, allowing a mere 65.8 points per game. Guards take on huge roles in slower paced games; Olympiacos is led by Vassilis Spanoulis and backcourt mates Vangelos Mantzaris, Kostas Sloukas and ex-Valencia player Oliver Lafayette. Valencia counters with Sam Van Rossom, Pau Ribas and Rafa Martinez. Valencia center Bojan Dubljevic has played well recently alongside power forward Luka Harangody. They will face Olympiacos center Bryant Dunston and Othello Hunter and forward Brent Petway and Dimitrios Agravanis. The hosts’ Tremmell Darden and Valencia veteran Romain Sato both bring leadership and their head-to-head matchup will be important. Another loss for Valencia, which is winless on the road this season, would put it two victories outside of fourth place and the final ticket to the Top 16, so Coach Perasovic’s team will play with motivation. Will that be enough?
I don't know. Olympiakos is very strong at home, the fans are fantastic and surely they are the favourites of this game... However, I think the Spanish side is underrated by the bookies (4.75). I expect a more balanced game than the odds suggest : Valencia Basket + 9.5 (1.90)  | ✓

EXTRA PLAYER TIP 

This young guy in the photo above is the 22-year old Latvian small forward of Laboral Kutxa Vitoria, Davis Bertans. Neptunas - Laboral match will be probable a high-scoring one, the Spanish side is in a must-win situation and Bertans is one of the best players of the team with great shooting skills and second scorer of the team in Euroleague after Shengeila. I think if he will be in a good shooting day, he can go over his total points set by the bookies - 10.5 (1.85)  | ✖