Euroleague, January 2, 2015

BASKETBALL - EUROLEAGUE

Regular season 2014/2015 recap

TOP16

Regular season is off, so the best teams are here, I expect spectacular and exciting matches :

GROUP E

CRVENA ZVEZDA - REAL MADRID

Crvena Zvezda and Real Madrid meet for the first time since the 2006-07 season, when they squared off four times in the ULEB Cup. Madrid won three of those encounters - including a sweep in the two-game quarterfinals - and went on to win the competition. Madrid big man Felipe Reyes is the only player from either team that season who remains on the current rosters.

Zvezda rolled to second place in its regular season group behind dominant play by center Boban Marjanovic who was the regular season leader in average performance index rating (24.9 per game) & in rebounding (10.7 rpg.) and regular season assist leader Marcus Williams (6.9 per game). Madrid has the weapons to challenge with a trio of centers in Ioannis Bourousis, Salah Mejri and Gustavo Ayon, though Zvezda’s power inside does not evaporate when Marjanovic takes a seat because Maik Zirbes comes in. Los Blancos’ backcourt of Sergio Llull and Sergio Rodriguez and will make things hard on Williams. On the wings, Madrid will use Rudy Fernandez against Zvezda scorer Jaka Blazic. Another important matchup will see Zvezda’s Rising Star Luka Mitrovic face off against the likes of Felipe Reyes and Andres Nocioni. 
Real Madrid hadn't a dominant performance in Euroleague regular season and in ACB neither in away games. They played 2 derbys in ACB last week, both of them lost : Barcelona - Real Madrid : 76 - 68 and Unicaja Malaga - Real Madrid : 99 - 92(OT), so I think there is a big frustration inside the team, so definitely 1.40 for the Spanish team hasn't value in my eyes. On the other hand, Zvezda is 15-0 in ABA (last game : 80 - 64 against Cibona Zagreb on 27th December) and played really good in Euroleague too. Zvezda went 4-1 at home in the regular season and is at its best in front of its passionate fans, who will put pressure on the Euroleague runner-up, but the experienced visitors will be ready. I think the best choice is handicap betting on hosts, you can find additional handicaps at Bet365 like : +9.5 - 1.47   | ✓ ; +8.5 - 1.55   | ✓ ; +7.5 - 1.61   | ✓

* Sergio Rodriguez needs 7 more assists to reach 500 for his Euroleague career, over 4.5 assists - 1.85 can be an interesting bet at Superbet.   | ✓

ALBA BERLIN - BARCELONA

* Alex Abrines, Juan Carlos Navarro, Brad Oleson and Marcus Eriksson are injured and not expected to travel for the Top 16 opener.

The German capital will host the first meeting between these teams in more than five years. ALBA has ridden the strong presence of Jamel McLean inside with the support of perimeter players Reggie Redding, Cliff Hammonds and Alex Renfroe. Barcelona has plenty of answers in the paint with Ante Tomic and German national team Tibor Pleiss, while Marcelinho Huertas, Tomas Satoransky, Alex Abrines and newcomer Edwin Jackson will match up with the ALBA backcourt. Deshaun Thomas and Boki Nachbar give Barcelona serious offensive punch at the forward spots, which ALBA will try to answer through Marko Banic and Leon Radosevic. Barcelona has won its last six Euroleague road games and was 6-1 on the road in the Top 16 last season, so Coach Xavi Pascual’s men certainly have the ability to win in Germany. ALBA is back in the Top 16 after a year away and knows how important a Round 1 win is to its chances to fight for what would be its first Euroleague playoff spot. I expect an underish game here, you can find addition total points line at Bet365 : under 160.5 - 1.44   | ✓; 159.5 - 1.50   | ✓; 158.5 - 1.55   | ✓; 157.5 - 1.61   | ✓; 156.5 - 1.70   | ✓

* Marcelinho Huertas needs 6 more assists to reach the Euroleague's career top 10, over 5.5 assists - 1.85 can be an interesting bet at Superbet.   | ✓

GROUP F

FENERBAHCE - CSKA MOSCOW

* Viktor Khryapa and Alexey Zozulin are still sidelined for CSKA.
Milos Teodosic is doubtful for the Top 16 opener.
Ricky Hickman missed the last Turkish League game, but he is expected to play on Friday.

It is a battle of masterminds, as Zeljko Obradovic and Dimitris Itoudis, who worked together for 13 years and led Panathinaikos to five continental crowns, face each other for the first time in a Euroleague game. Obradovic relies on Andrew Goudelock, Nemanja Bjelica (foto) and Bogdan Bogdanovic to make the difference at the wings. Goudelock and Bogdanovic will test their scoring skills against Vitaly Fridzon, Nando De Colo and Manuchar Markoishvili. Bjelica must use his size and one-on-one skills against star forward Sonny Weems, in one of the key matchups in this game. CSKA needs its rock-solid frontcourt, led by Sasha Kaun, Kyle Hines and Andrey Vorontsevich, to stand tall. Hines and Kaun must battle against a battery of experienced big men such as Oguz Savas, Luka Zoric and Semih Erden. Vorontsevich will not have it easy against versatile forwards Emir Preldzic and Jan Vesely. Fenerbahce signed Nikos Zisis to join forces with Ricky Hickman and Kenan Sipahi at point guard. If Milos Teodosic remains sidelined, Aaron Jackson and De Colo will split the point guard duties in this very exciting game.
Fenerbahce went 8-2(4-1 at home) in a balanced, complicated, dangerous group, they lost at home only against Barcelona by 2 points, while CSKA went 10-0 in regular season, but from my point of view, they had easy opponents except the champion Maccabi and the dangerous Unicaja. 

Last season H2H games : 
CSKA - Fenerbahce : 74 - 78
Fenerbahce - CSKA : 86 - 60 

Fenerbahce lost a few days ago in TBL against Anadolu Efes on road, but today I expect a fully motivated, strong home performance. CSKA every year is one of the best teams in Euroleague, but they did not manage to win the trohphy in the past years. The turkish side made great summer transfers and is one of the contenders to lift the Euroleague trophy this year and in front of their sensational fans I don't think they are underdogs, so I will support the home team in this derby : Fenerbahce to win 2.30  | ✖

* Milos Teodosic needs 11 more three-pointers to crack the competition’s career top 10 in that category. 


LABORAL KUTXA VITORIA - ANADOLU EFES ISTAMBUL

* Thomas Heurtel (*foto - 12.2 PPG, 6.7 APG) joined Efes last week from Laboral Kutxa, where he had played the previous two and a half seasons.
Lamont Hamilton and Baskonia just announced that they parted ways.
New arrivals to the team are Ben Hansbrough and Darius Adams, plus Mirza Begic extended his contract until the end of the season.

The Spanish side qualified in the top 16 based on their home wins and the excellent performances of Heurtel, Bertans, Shengelia and San Emeterio. They played an offensive, spectacular basketball, but I think the leaving of Heurtel, the engine of the team from my point of view, will reduce their power with at least 30%. The scoring role remains on the other 3 player wrote above. They lost the last ACB game few days ago against Zaragoza 105-94. On the other hand, Efes is coming after a huge win in TBL against Fenerbahce 85 - 67 and performed well in Euroleague too, they had the top-ranked defense in the regular season with just 69.6 points allowed per game and with the addition of Heurtel I think they will be much stronger.

Last season H2H games : 
EFES - Laboral : 79 - 105
Laboral - EFES : 66 - 72

Everything can happen in this balanced encounter, but I think in this moment the value, the experience, the morale is at away side, so I think they had a good chance to win as underdogs : Efes to win 2.00  | ✓


EMPORIO ARMANI MILANO - NIZHNY NOVGOROD

These teams face each other for the first time ever. Nizhny is expected to be with Taylor Rochestie, the regular season top scorer (20 per game), who missed his team's last two games due to injury. Rochestie will share the point guard duties with Dmitriy Khvostov against Joe Ragland and Trent Meacham, in what promises to be a key battle. Milan has many options at the wings but MarShon Brooks, Daniel Hackett and David Moss will see most of the playing time. Brooks and on-the-ball defender Bruno Cerella have the tough mission to guard Tarence Kinsey. Meanwhile, Moss and Hackett must use their athleticism and experience against a taller opponent in versatile forward Semen Antonov. Evgeny Baburin and Levan Patsatsia can play key roles for the guests. Nizhny relies on Trey Thompkins and Art Parakhouski to make the difference in the paint. Thompkins faces a tough test against the more experienced Linas Kleiza, while Parakhouski faces Shawn James and Samardo Samuels. Nicolo Melli may be the hosts' X-factor due to his shooting range and quickness. 

I saw two inconstant teams in their performances in regular season : Armani Milano managed to qualify in top16 due to their strong home performances against the teams of their level, while Novgorod made a few incredible good matches on road as completely underdogs finishing with spectacular W (at UNICS Kazan 5.10, at Sassari 2.70, at EFES 6.00). 

Expect a big battle at Mediolanum Forum, I think handicap betting on away team can be a good decision : +12.5 - 1.41  | ✓; +11.5 - 1.47  | ✓; +10.5 - 1.55  | ✓


UNICAJA MALAGA - OLYMPIAKOS

*Ioannis Papapetrou is still sidelined for the Reds.
Georgios Printezis came back against Panathinaikos in the Greek League. He is set to make his Euroleague debut this season.

Two classic Top 16 powerhouses meet again – these teams faced each other four times last season and Olympiacos won all four games. Unicaja relies on its dynamic frontcourt, led by centers Vladimir Golubovic and Fran Vazquez. Golubovic and Vazquez will battle hard against Bryant Dunston and Othello Hunter at center, while Will Thomas and Caleb Green must use their athleticism against Brent Petway and Georgios Printezis, who is set to play his first Euroleague game this season. Unicaja’s Stefan Markovic and Jayson Granger face a tough test at point guard against two reliable players in Oliver Lafayette and Vangelis Mantzaris. Of course, Unicaja's main concern will be slowing Olympiacos superstar Vassilis Spanoulis, as the Reds run their offense through him. Spanoulis will get help from Matt Lojeski, Kostas Sloukas and Tremmell Darden at the wings. Ryan Toolson and Kostas Vasileiadis must step up against Spanoulis, while Darden and Lojeski will not have it easy against Mindaugas Kuzminskas and Carlos Suarez at small forward. Expect a tough and intense game.

Last season H2H games : 
Unicaja - Olympiakos : 63 - 80
Olympiakos - Unicaja : 73 - 55  
Unicaja - Olympiakos : 74 - 82 
Olympiakos - Unicaja : 69 - 61 

Looking at the past head-2-head games and this Euroleague regular season's results, the logical bet would be an away win, but it's not that simple. Unicaja has an incredibly good streak in ACB(1st : 12-2) managing to beat Real Madrid in overtime a few days ago as I wrote above, so despite the inconstant results in regular season group, I think Unicaja remains a serious contender for at least the 4st spot in group F, but maybe I'm a bit subjective, because I love this team and Joan Plaza's (foto) playing style. 

* Unicaja was the Euroleague regular season leader in offensive rebounds with 15.6 per game.
* Fran Vazquez is 4 offensive rebounds away from a spot in the Euroleague’s career top 10 in that category. Vazquez is 11th all-time. 
Vazquez had one of his best game of the year last season on opening night against Olympiacos with 12 points, 10 rebounds and 3 blocks in just 19 minutes.

Euroleague, 20 November, 2014

BASKETBALL - EUROLEAGUE 

If it's Thursday, it's EUROLEAGUE DAY... Last week was a crazy one with a series of surprises : Anadolu Efes won against Real Madrid - 3.65, Crvena Zvezda won on road against Laboral Kutxa - 2.70, Neptunas won at home against Valencia Basket - 3.50, Maccabi Tel Aviv won on road in Spain against Unicaja - 2.90 and Novgorod managed to win the Russian battle in Kazan - 5.00... Therefore, the odds for this week's matches are more balanced, so I don't recommend to bet on moneyline, but there are some options on over/under total points:

UNICS KAZAN v ANADOLU EFES 

These teams meet again after a very different first halves to the regular season. Efes beat Unics 82-76 in Istanbul and is undefeated on the road. Unics needs a big game from its point guard duo, Curtis Jerrells and Nikos Zisis, who must control the game tempo against Dontaye Draper, Dogus Balbay and Donnie McGrath. Efes relies on youngsters Cedi Osman and Furkan Korkmaz to make the difference at the wings along with Stratos Perperoglou and Matt Janning, whose last-second tip-in lifted his team against Real Madrid last week. None of them will have it easy, as Unics is really experienced at the wings with Keith Langford, Sergey Bykov and James White. Efes is still without Nenad Krstic, so Stephane Lasme, Dario Saric and Milko Bjelica will see most of the playing time around the baskets. Saric faces a tough test against Unics power forwards Kostas Kaimakoglou and Viktor Sanikidze, while Lasme has a tough matchup against D'or Fischer. Expect high intensity and drama in Kazan.

Anadolu Efes (4-1) is coming after a huge win at home against Real Madrid, a team with one of the best roster in Europe, but the players are still not playing at 100% from my point of view, while Unics Kazan (1-4) is coming after two disappointing lost games against Novgorod and Zalgiris(in both games where booked as favourites). If we're looking on the odds of the game, logically the value is on the Turkish side, but they always play better at home, they have some injuried players (Krstic is the most important missing) and Russians are in a must-win situation. I think we will see a great defence-minded game, I expect an underish game - 146.5 (1.90).   | ✓

Keith Langford(foto-right side) is not my type of player, but he is an all-around scorer. Last year was the best player of Emporio Armani Milano and this season is clearly the leader of Unics Kazan. The Turkish defence will definitely try to put pressure on him, but this guy can beat any defence from my point of view and if he will be in a good shape, I think he can go over his total points set by the bookies - 15.5 (1.85)   | ✓

CSKA MOSCOW v ALBA BERLIN  

CSKA will qualify to the Top 16 with its next win. CSKA leads the competition in two-point shooting percentage (61.7%) and ALBA is second in two-pointers made (24 per game). CSKA already beat ALBA 68-84 in Berlin. Stopping Milos Teodosic and Aaron Jackson will be critical for ALBA, which relies on Cliff Hammonds and Alex Renfroe to do so. The matchup between Renfroe and Teodosic, two players in very good shape, will be critical. ALBA has depth at both wings, but Reggie Redding and Niels Giffey will see most of the playing time against Sonny Weems, Vitaly Fridzon and Nando De Colo. The battle in the paint will be very important, as ALBA is running its offense through an unstoppable Jamel McLean, who is tied with Teodosic for third place in average performance index ranking (20.6). Leon Radosevic, Marko Banic and Johan Wolfarth-Boetterman round out a solid frontcourt that will not have it easy against Kyle Hines, Andrey Vorontsevich, Sasha Kaun and Demetris Nichols. The matchup between Hines and McLean, two physical, talented big men, could be one of the biggest keys to this game.
Normally, it will be a game controlled and won by the better team, CSKA. The Teodosic - Weems - Kaun trio is playing very efficient and dominating, I expect a spectacular, intensive game.. if you decide to bet on this game, I see imagination in Bwin's total points offer 151 - 160 (3.40)   | ✖

OLYMPIAKOS v VALENCIA BASKET
  

All signs point to a low-scoring game. Both teams are among the bottom third in offense this season and the Reds boast the Euroleague’s stingiest defense, allowing a mere 65.8 points per game. Guards take on huge roles in slower paced games; Olympiacos is led by Vassilis Spanoulis and backcourt mates Vangelos Mantzaris, Kostas Sloukas and ex-Valencia player Oliver Lafayette. Valencia counters with Sam Van Rossom, Pau Ribas and Rafa Martinez. Valencia center Bojan Dubljevic has played well recently alongside power forward Luka Harangody. They will face Olympiacos center Bryant Dunston and Othello Hunter and forward Brent Petway and Dimitrios Agravanis. The hosts’ Tremmell Darden and Valencia veteran Romain Sato both bring leadership and their head-to-head matchup will be important. Another loss for Valencia, which is winless on the road this season, would put it two victories outside of fourth place and the final ticket to the Top 16, so Coach Perasovic’s team will play with motivation. Will that be enough?
I don't know. Olympiakos is very strong at home, the fans are fantastic and surely they are the favourites of this game... However, I think the Spanish side is underrated by the bookies (4.75). I expect a more balanced game than the odds suggest : Valencia Basket + 9.5 (1.90)  | ✓

EXTRA PLAYER TIP 

This young guy in the photo above is the 22-year old Latvian small forward of Laboral Kutxa Vitoria, Davis Bertans. Neptunas - Laboral match will be probable a high-scoring one, the Spanish side is in a must-win situation and Bertans is one of the best players of the team with great shooting skills and second scorer of the team in Euroleague after Shengeila. I think if he will be in a good shooting day, he can go over his total points set by the bookies - 10.5 (1.85)  | ✖