Euroleague, 30 October, 2014

BASKETBALL - EUROLEAGUE 

We are in the beginning of the season and it's hard to bet right now, but because BASKETBALL it's my favourite sport, I will try to write a few rows about 3 balanced matches... In general, I don't like to bet or to recommend betting on unders, but I see these games as low-scoring ones : 

ANADOLU EFES v ZALGIRIS KAUNAS

A pair of Turkish Airlines Euroleague classics meet again and this time the point guard battle will be more critical than ever. Zalgiris relies on Vaidas Kariniauskas and Lukas Lekavicius to control the game rhythm like they did last week against Nizhny Novgorod. It won't be easy against steals specialist Dontaye Draper, former Zalgiris playmaker Donnie McGrath and Dogus Balbay. Nenad Krstic, Milko Bjelica and Stephane Lasme must work hard in the paint against Arturas Gudaitis, Robertas Javtokas, Paulius Jankunas and Darius Songaila - a great fight of experienced frontcourts. Dario Saric can make the difference for Efes at power forward due to his size, ball-handling ability and mobility. Cedi Osman, Matt Janning and Stratos Perperoglou must step up on defense against do-it-all swingman James Anderson and three-point threat Arturas Milaknis.

Euroleague results :

EFES – UNICS Kazan : 82 – 76 (45 – 34)

Sassari – EFES : 75 – 82 (40 – 47)

Real Madrid – Zalgiris : 80 – 71 (32-35)

Zalgiris – Novgorod : 97 – 63 (48 – 24)

Last year :

Anadolu Efes – Zalgiris : 72 – 61 (38 – 38)

Zalgiris – Anadolu Efes : 65 – 63 (34 – 36)

As we can see, Anadolu Efes has a good start in Euroleague, currently ranked first with 2 wins, while Zalgiris has 1 win and 1 lose… Efes won against Unics and Sassari, but both wins was quite tough and this team, despite their great roster, didn't proved that they are so strong this season. Zalgiris lost against Real by 9 points and there looked really great with 2 young point guards, while in last week they showed fantastic performance against Novgorod and won by more than 30 points.

"The Zalgiris Kaunas game will be the third game in six days for us. Our schedule is very tough. After the two games on the road against Sassari in Euroleague and against Tofaş in Turkish League, we have only two days for the Zalgiris game. No time to prepare. Zalgiris Kaunas is one of the very positive teams with many many young talented players like Anadolu Efes. They played two games in Euroleague, first one in Madrid and they were very good and ahead in the first half. The second game was against Nizhny Novgorod which was an easy home victory. We have to be very well-prepared for the game. Lasme has got a back problem and Saric has a sprained ankle, definitely the first injuries for us this season. Our medical team is working hard to make them ready as soon as possible. It is a very tough week." – Dusko Ivanovic, Efes coach

I think in this game, we have good chances to see less than 76 points in the first half(1.85). | ✓ Anadolu Efes likes to play very physical basketball, especially in front of home crowd, Zalgiris will surely fight until the last seconds in this game. Matches between these teams are often nervously, low scoring and here I think any team may win this game. As Dusko Ivanovic said, the team can be tired, because of their crowded program and if Lasme or Saric won’t play, it will be a difficult game for them… From my point of view will see a great defensive match, I think the option on under is a good one and maybe a little surprise on Zalgiris handicap(+7.5) – 1.85   | ✓ can be a good decision, expect great intensity in a very interesting game!


CRVENA ZVEZDA TELEKOM BELGRADE v VALENCIA BASKET 

Two teams coming off road losses look to rebound. Despite a great game from point guard Marcus Williams and solid scoring from Jaka Blazic, Zvezda lost as it was unable to effectively fee Boban Marjanovic inside. Valencia enjoyed strong play from its point guard Sam Van Rossom and power forward Luka Harangody, but poor shooting damned it to a second loss. Williams and Van Rossom will lock horns in one of this game’s most-important matchups. Valencia will look to Kreso Loncar and Serhiy Lishchuk to rely on their experience and find a way to stop Marjanovic. Dwight Buycks provides an offensive boost for Valencia off the bench; much like counterpart Blazic. The versatile Luka Mitrovic could play a major role at power forward opposite Harangody in another intriguing matchup. Zvezda has rebounded much better than Valencia thus far this season and if it can do so again will have a significant advantage in this exciting contest.

Euroleague results :

Crvena Zvezda – Galatasaray : 76 – 68 (46 – 30)

Neptunas – Crvena Zvezda : 83 – 81 (47 – 37)

Valencia Basket – Olympiakos : 68 – 71 (36-38)

Galatasaray – Valencia Basket : 71 – 64 (47 – 24)

"It is going to be a difficult game. There is no doubt about it. Valencia has a great team with many talented players on all positions. Regardless of their two defeats in the Euroleague, I think they played very well in both of those games. It is enough to look at their players to realize this is an excellent team. Since we are playing against such a strong opponent, we will need all our mental and physical strength for the duel to get a good result. We will try to play aggressive defense as in the previous games and to improve our rebounds because that can give us a chance for easy points in transition." – Charles Jenkins, Zvezda’s guard

I think we have good chances to see a relatively low scoring first half, no more than 75 points(1.85).  | ✓ Crvena Zvezda will play aggressively in the defense, as they did in their first two Euroleague games. Valencia lost their first two matches, they had strong opponents like Galatasaray or Olympiakos, but they didn’t perform badly though. They will be very focused, work hard defensively, it will be a tight game with a lot of defensive pressure, we'll see a trepidant game, probably both team will play in slow temp trying to be wise in the shot selection. 



PANATHINAIKOS v FENERBAHCE 

In no other city will a game be dominated like the return of Coach Zeljko Obradovic to Athens. The Fenerbahce Ulker head coach is a legend among Greens fans for the bevvy of titles he led the club to. The Turkish champs arrive with a perfect record and don’t want to return home without it. Andrew Goudelock has starred in Fenerbahce’s deep backcourt, but he won’t have it easy against Panathinaikos legend Dimitris Diamantidis and backcourt mate AJ Slaughter. Reserves Janis Blums and Nikos Pappas have also played well for the Greek champs. Ricky Hickman and Bogdan Bogdanovic round out the visiting guard rotation. Among several must-see matchups in this game is between two high flyers and former teammates, James Gist and Jan Vesely, at forward. Fener will turn to Ogus Savas and Semih Erden to limit Esteban Batista in the paint, which would put a damper on the home team’s attack. Julian Wright could play a key role off the bench for Panathinaikos, while forward Emir Preldzic and Nemanja Bjleica possess game-breaking abilities for Fener.

Euroleague results :

Panathinaikos – Turow : 84 – 77 (42 – 35)

Bayern – Panathinaikos : 81 – 75 (32 – 35)

Fenerbahce – AJ Milano : 77 – 74 (41-- 43)

Turow – Fenerbahce : 76 – 91 (40 – 50)

Last year :

Fenerbahce – Panathinaikos : 77 – 72

Panathinaikos – Fenerbahce : 76 – 67

"It is a big game against a very strong team. In my opinion Fenerbahce Ulker is one of the favorites to qualify to the Final Four. Also we have to say that a legend for Panathinaikos, Zeljko Obradovic, is coming to Athens. We will try to do our best, to play smart and to be energetic in both sites of the court, in order to win this game." - Dusko Ivanovic, Panata's coach.

Fenerbahce is the favourite of this game from my point of view, but never underestimate Panata and Greek basketball teams in general, they can play incredibly well, particularly, at home... Last season, Panata was a clearly underish team, a lot has changed in Athens, but not the game philosophy. This will be a tactical war between Ivanovic and Obradovic, and I think we won’t see a match over 150 points. It’s true that in the first meetings both of them were at or above this margin, but Turow and Bayern are exclusively offensively focused teams who like a faster pace and whose defense is bad. However, both Panathinaikos and Fenerbahce have shown this season that they can play a very good defense. Panathinaikos are repairing their level of game in that segment; in three championship matches they received 66, 61 and 58 points, although in the last one they could’ve gone under 50 if it had been necessary. On the other hand, Fenerbahce have in the championship against the defensively-focused Turks and Gaziantep played at 134 and 136 points, and we could see something similar today. In any case, this margin is set too high, under the influence of their first matches, but it were the opponents who brought them to the big numbers.

Everyone in Athens are aware that Fenerbahce can win only with a firm and aggressive defense and maximum focus during the entire 40 minutes. They will try to slow down the pace ; as you can see above, last year these two teams played two matches in the Top 16; in Greece it ended with 143 points and in Turkey with 149. Today I expect an underish game , both teams throw statements about maximum concentration and a smart game, and I see this match at 150 points or less(1.90). | ✖